Aaron Rodgers AND Davonte Adams traded to the Denver Broncos

Yeah, it hasn’t happened yet.  But I am predicting it will.  

We are all familiar with the drama between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last offseason.  That conflict had Rodgers, and the Packers headed to a divorce.  However, the tide seems to have changed.  By all accounts, the relationship between the Rodgers and the Packers is currently in excellent shape.  Here is what Rodgers said in a recent Pat McAfee Show 2.0 Podcast.

“I feel like I’m at the place relationally with the Packers, in a really good place, especially with Brian and the way our friendship and trust has grown, where it would be a simple conversation and whatever comes out of the conversation is moving forward.  There’s not going to be a weird standoff, war of silence, or anything.  Brian and I have had good conversations throughout the year, and when it comes time to make a decision, we’ll have a conversation, and that’ll be that.  It won’t be a long, drawn-out process.”

There is one more crucial recent comment by Rodgers.  In the press conference following the loss to the 49ers, Rodgers stated, “I don’t want to be part of a rebuild.”

The Packers and Rodgers may be getting along very well.  But unfortunately, the Packers are looking at some level of a rebuild.  The Packers are currently $46,501,962 over the cap for next season.  And, that does not include the possibility of keeping Davante Adams.  Simply put, they are in an extremely tight spot.  Sure, that can restructure some contracts and reduce that number.  But there are going to be some tough decisions and substantial losses.  The team as constructed has been unable to get to the Super Bowl, and the unfortunate bottom line is they will not be as talented next year.

The Packers can construct the best roster around Rodgers with their cap considerations, but they have missed their window.  As a result, there will be a drop in talent and some level of a rebuild. 

This entire process started two years ago when the Packers traded up in the first round of the NFL draft to select Jordan Love.  In my opinion, that move not only pushed the team towards a rebuild but also caused the Packers to miss out on making a Super Bowl run WITH Rodgers.

Let’s look closer at how that decision impacted the current situation.  According to most analysts leading up to the 2020 draft, the Packers needed help at WR.  But instead of increasing the weapons around Rodgers, they drafted their “future” QB in Love.  Just think, if the Packers had just stood pat with the 30^th pick and selected a WR, would there have been a different result in their playoff runs?  Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. went three and four picks after the Packer’s original draft position in the 2020 draft.  They could have stayed at 30 and selected either pass-catcher instead of Love.  Would another big-time playmaker have made a difference against the 49ers in their playoff loss this year?  Instead, the Packers struggled to score and lost a tight contest.  The pick they traded in that deal also caused a cascading effect on the roster and the 2021 draft.  In the end, that trade and the selection of Jordan Love reduced the talent around Rodgers and reduced the chances of making a championship run.

The Packers missed out on making their run with Rodgers and would only compound that mistake at this point by reversing course to build around him.  Done is done; they missed the window.  It is time for both parties to move on.  The only thing that will keep them together is emotion, and it will not end well for the Packers or Aaron Rodgers. 

The Patriots and Tom Brady were in a similar situation a few years ago.  But there is one big difference.  The Patriots did not get any assets back when they lost Brady.  The Packers could acquire significant assets in return for Rodgers and jumpstart a rebuild.  If Rodgers and the Packers stay together, the team will regress.  And, the Packers will only delay and acquire fewer assets for the inevitable rebuild.  The Packers missed the opportunity to go all-in for a championship with Rodgers.  After that mistake, it would be amazing incompetence to now miss the chance to rebuild with the assets they could acquire by trading him.  You cannot have your cake and eat it too.  The time is now to finish what they started two years ago. 

Okay, if the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are going to split, what are the possibilities for a trade?  First, there are several teams with a significant need at QB.  That list would include Washington, Denver, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa, and Carolina.  In addition, other teams need to consider their options.  This list includes Las Vegas, Minnesota, Detroit, NY Giants, Indianapolis, Houston, Atlanta, and Cleveland.

We can eliminate some teams because their rosters and front offices are not strong enough; Rodgers would refuse to play for them.  Those would probably include Carolina, Washington, Atlanta, Detroit, NY Giants, and Houston.  There is no chance the Packers would trade him to Minnesota, so they are also out.  And maybe it’s just me, but this does not seem like the type of thing the Pittsburgh organization does.  New Orleans is the only team in worse cap hell than Green Bay.  There is a reason that Sean Payton retired.  The Saints are also going into a rebuild which eliminates them from consideration.  I think we can also eliminate Tampa.  They went all-in to make runs with Tampa Bay and will have and pay the piper, which puts them in a similar situation as Green Bay.  Why leave for a similar situation if you are happy where you are.  So no, Tampa does not seem like a viable option.

So that leaves Denver, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, and Cleveland.

Okay, how about the cost?  Most of the estimates I have seen are two to three first-round picks and a player.  That is a pretty high cost, but we are talking about an MVP-level player. 

The Colts have already surrendered their first-rounder this year to acquire Carson Wentz, so that pretty much eliminates them.  So now we are down to Vegas, Denver, and Cleveland.  In my opinion, of these three teams, there is one that makes the most sense.  Desperation may be the key.  The Denver Broncos will be the most desperate because they have the most significant need at QB.  Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield may have questions but are enough to keep those teams from desperation.  On the other hand, the Broncos have Drew Lock on top of their depth chart.  That smells of desperation which will result in the best offer.

The rest of the roster in Denver is talented and deep.  The Broncos look like a team ready to compete for a championship with the addition of a QB.  Sure, they could draft a rookie QB, but this roster is ready now.  Waiting for a rookie to develop, or not develop, does not make sense, especially considering the questions surrounding this year’s crop of QBs in the draft.  Acquiring a veteran QB to lead this team is the best option.

You would think Rodgers would look at that roster and feel it presents a much better chance at a championship over whatever will remain from the Packers roster.

Plus, the Broncos recently hired Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach.  Hackett has served as the offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers for the past three seasons.  He knows Rodgers, and Rodgers knows him.  And the Broncos also hired Justin Outten as their offensive coordinator.  Outten also comes over from the Packers, where he was the tight ends coach.  Again, he knows Rodgers, and Rodgers knows him.  The Broncos have set up a situation for a soft landing by Rodgers.  The Broncos are the perfect trade companion for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers.

Okay, I believe one other factor will come into play.  If the Packers agree to trade Rodgers, they will be going into a full-on rebuild.  That means they need to acquire as many assets as possible while clearing as much money as possible.  Davante Adams is a free agent.  Adams will not likely sign a long-term contract in Green Bay if Rodgers leaves.  Plus, it would not make sense for Green Bay to sign a 29-year-old receiver to a long-term, high-cost deal amid a rebuild.  The Packers could franchise tag Adams, but he has already expressed his dissatisfaction with that idea.  The most likely outcome would be the Packers doing a tag and trade with Adams to acquire assets and allow him to move on to a new team.

This situation brings me back to Denver.  The Broncos have the 6^th most available cap space in the league going into the offseason.  Therefore, they have the cap room to sign Rodgers and Adams to new contracts.  Assuming they can agree with the Packers on compensation.  

This trade scenario of Rodgers and Adams would ensure maximum return of assets for the Packers.  So now, the question becomes what that return would be for this deal to transpire.  Well, how about I make a suggestion?

Broncos receive Aaron Rodgers and the rights to Davante Adams.

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams sign new contracts with Denver.

The Packers receive the Broncos 2022 first-rounder (9^th overall), 2023 first-rounder, 2024 first-rounder, Jerry Jeudy, and Albert Okwuegbunam.

This proposal is a high cost for the Broncos.  But we are talking about adding Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the strong roster they already have.  The Bronco defense is outstanding.  The offensive line is decent.  They would have a receiving core that would include Adams, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant.  Plus, a young stud running back in Javonte Williams.  All led by Aaron Rodgers.  This team would be prepared to make its run at championships.  So Denver, what are you willing to do?  It is a high cost, but a price they should be willing to pay.

Plus, the Broncos would have little trouble attracting veterans to play alongside Rodgers and chase a ring, similar to what happened in Tampa Bay with Tom Brady.  So, for example, maybe Gronk would be willing to spend a season or two in Denver chasing more rings and playing with another all-timer.  

As for the Packers, they would roll with Jordan Love.  They would add two young and affordable pass catchers for Love in Jerry Jeudy and Albert Okwuegbunam.  They would have two first-round picks in each of the next three drafts to bring in more young talent.  All those assets would be a great jumpstart on a rebuild.  And, the Packers could continue to reduce payroll and attempt to acquire more assets by trading other veterans.  It could be a quick and robust rebuild.

A trade like this would be great for all parties involved.

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams would be able to continue competing together in a comfortable situation due to the presence of Nathaniel Hackett and Justin Outten.

The Denver Broncos would go all-in and open a window to compete for championships over the next few years.

And the Green Bay Packers would acquire a ton of assets to provide power to their rebuild.  In my opinion, this is the Packer’s best chance to compete for a championship.  Yes, I said trading Aaron Rodgers is the Packer’s best chance at winning a title.  They missed their window with Rodgers and now need to figure out what is best for the franchise moving forward.  Delaying will end with fewer assets to complete their post-Rodgers rebuild.  Now is the time.

Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams traded to the Denver Broncos.

Good for Aaron Rodgers?  Check.  Good for the Denver Broncos?  Check.  Good for the Green Bay Packers?  Check.

And most of all, it would be great fun for fans of the NFL.