Busting the false narratives surrounding Lamar Jackson is like being trapped in a never-ending game of whack-a-mole. No matter how many myths he shatters or how many false narratives are proven inaccurate, they just keep popping up. With the NFL playoffs kicking into high gear, one giant misconception about Lamar has once again reared its ugly head.
“Lamar Jackson is not very good at end-game or clutch situations!”
It’s like déjà vu in the false narrative department.
Before Lamar’s recent win over the Texans, the trending false narrative was that Lamar could not win in the playoffs. Following the demolishing of the Texans, a game that showcased Lamar’s mastery over a good defense in the second half of a playoff game, the following situation unfolded in the post-game show.
Scott Van Pelt asked Ryan Clark about the persistent Lamar Jackson doubters, and RC’s reply was golden, “The buttheads always have plenty of buts.”
There could not be a more accurate statement. No matter what brilliance Lamar displays, the yeah buts from his detractors will not fade away. So, here we go again, back to the yeah but for this week’s game. “Lamar Jackson is not very good at end-game or clutch situations!”
Is Lamar bad in late-game situations? Absolutely not! Lamar does not just shine in late-game clutch situations; he thrives. This is yet another false narrative bandied about by the Lamar doubters. So, let’s look into the facts that expose this perception as entirely inaccurate.
For this exercise, we will identify late-game, clutch situations as receiving the ball in the 4th quarter and losing by less than one score. During this 2023-2024 season, there were four occasions where Lamar and the Ravens were in this position. The results?
In three of those four situations, Lamar drove the team down the field for a score to tie or take the lead. The one exception was the Pittsburgh game, where the Pittsburgh defense came up with a strip sack that ended the game. Even with that one massive setback against a division rival, Lamar’s 75% success rate in these situations is really strong.
Now, how about a comparison with a great quarterback to add context to Lamar’s performance this season? We can use Patrick Mahomes, the opposing quarterback in this weekend’s matchup. During this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs faced these late-game clutch situations nine times. How many times were Mahomes and the Chiefs successful?
Just once. Once!
Lamar was 3 out of 4. Patrick was 1 out of 9. With less than half the opportunities for a clutch performance, Lamar had three times more success than Patrick Mahomes at bringing his team from behind at the most critical moments.
Okay, this is a relatively small sample size of four games. However, Lamar’s late-game heroics are not limited to four performances over one season. Let’s go back a few years and see if Lamar’s performance in these late-game clutch situations is consistent. Unsurprisingly to Lamar truthers like myself, the facts are impressive.
Lamar was presented with thirteen of these situations in the two seasons before this year. And in those situations, he drove the Ravens for the score in ten of thirteen opportunities. So, in the last three years, Lamar has converted on 14 of 17 late-game clutch opportunities.
And for those detractors, a quick side note: one of the three “failures” resulted from a Sammy Watkins fumble. That fumble hardly reflects Lamar’s performance, but it counts as a clutch failure nonetheless. Overall, the idea that Lamar is no good in late-game situations is exposed as absurd by the facts.
While these are impressive statistics, we can add some anecdotal flavor to the discussion. In one of those clutch performances, the Ravens were trailing the Colts 25-9 with twelve minutes to go in the game. Lamar led the Ravens to back-to-back TD drives AND converted both two-point conversions to tie that game. And for those “Lamar can’t throw” skeptics, both TDs were passes, and the successful two-point conversions were also passes. Then, Lamar threw another TD pass in overtime for the win to cap it all off. Not bad for a running back who can’t play from behind.
And here’s the kicker: two of those three clutch TD passes do not even count in my statistic above as successful clutch performances. The first one occurred when they were down by two scores, and the third came when the game was tied in overtime. That game only provides one of the 14 out of 17 successful performances. Bottom line, this comeback story highlights and epitomizes Lamar’s success in the clutch.
Still not convinced? How about this example?
In 2021, the Chiefs were visiting the Ravens in Baltimore, just like this weekend’s upcoming matchup. And remember, this was when the Chiefs still had Tyreke Hill and were the #1 offense in the NFL.
So, entering the 4th quarter, the Chiefs are up eleven, 35-24. Lamar drives the Ravens down the field for a TD, and they miss the XP. Now, Kansas City leads 35-30. Once again, it was a clutch drive, but it did not count in my statistics as a clutch performance because they were down two scores.
Next, Mahomes and the Chiefs are unable to move down the field and punt.
Now, this is one of those late-game clutch situations we have been discussing, the Ravens are down by one score in the 4thquarter. So, what happens? Lamar leads the Ravens on a second straight TD drive but fails the two-point conversion again. However, the Ravens lead 36-35. Back-to-back 4th quarter TD drives to take the lead.
Now Mahomes needs a clutch drive of his own. There is 3:14 on the clock, and the Chiefs only need a FG to win. The result? Mahomes fails, and the Ravens win behind Lamar’s clutch 4th quarter.
So, is Mahomes a great clutch QB and Lamar a bad one? Both the statistics and head-to-head performance say no, Lamar is the more clutch player. But as is often true, perception is more important than reality.
And I am not the only one who sees this perception as a false narrative. Here is the 2023 Baltimore Raven preseason preview written by Adam Rank, feel free to look back if you like. But, I will show you the most relevant part of the article.
Rank shows that Lamar leads the NFL in passer rating during the last two minutes of a game when his team is behind. And, to provide clarity, the passer rating is generated only by using passing stats; running plays do not factor in at all. So, during this time period, he is the best PASSER in the NFL when his team is behind with less than two minutes in the game. Umm, yeah, that does not seem like “not very good at end-game situations.”
Look, maybe, MAYBE you can say that Lamar struggled early in his career in late-game management. But, like many quarterbacks, he has improved since he was a rookie. I think the doubters are long overdue in giving Lamar at least a modicum of credit.
Now, just imagine if the Ravens win in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. Lamar will join the following list: Tom Brady, Tom Brady, and Joe Burrow. Those are the quarterbacks who have defeated Patrick Mahomes’ in the postseason. Will it matter to the critics, doubters, and detractors? Probably not, because the buttheads will still say, yeah, but.
Maybe the biggest irony of all is that there is a percentage of Ravens fans who are rooting, at least secretly, for him to fail and prove their doubts correct. It is always a shame when a fan base does not appreciate the gift they have received. I, for one, would like to thank Ozzie for the wonderful gift of Lamar, win or lose this weekend.
